China's stock market in 2010 macroeconomic forecast

 2010: China stock market macro forecast
mm from the Chinese stock market rises and falls 20 years to see trends
the next three years, Wuhan University of Technology Director of Finance and Securities Research Institute, New Tang (Professor)
Since 1990, China's stock market open for business , has gone through the course of 20 years. Looking back on 20 years of CBBC China's stock market turn, rises and falls they are basically the Big stage: stage axis 1000, 1000 bottom of the stage, the 1500 bottom of the stage, the new axis confirmation stage.
(a) of the first phase of China's stock market: 1000 stage of the value axis (time 6 years) < br> 1990mm1996 in 6 years, China's stock market value has always been the central axis of 1,000 points, 1,500 points to become shareholders in mind insurmountable one, The three spike.
(1) the first round of rises and falls: 100 mm1429 mm400 point points (or more than 50%)
to December 19, 1990 as the base period, China's stock market starting from 100 points. May 26, 1992, the Shanghai index to 1429 points on the boom, this is the first big bull market The panic is rapidly fell back, plunged 5 months later, November 16, 1992, the Shanghai index dropped to below 400 points, almost their colors.
(2) the second round of rises and falls: 400 mm1536 points mm333 point (or more than 50%)
Shanghai Composite Index of 400 points from the low end of 1992 set sail to begin its second round of the speed to sneaked February 15, 1993 1536.82 points close (on the first stop on the Shanghai Composite Index above 1,500 points), only 3 months, the Shanghai index gained 1,100 points. the index above the station in 1500 stable after 4 days, then turn around and continued to fall. This is basically a fall did not meet any resistance, but down time is longer than the previous round, continued Yindie 17 months old .1994 July 29, the Shanghai index fell to its lowest point in this round of market closing 333.92 points.
(3) the third round of rises and falls: 333 points Point mm512 mm1053 point (or more than 50%)
rescue the three policies, 1994 on August 1, a new round of prices to start again, a large cattle market in this round are much more violent and short, just more than a month, the Shanghai index to fierce sneaked into the September 13, 1994 the highest point of 1053 points , or 215%. Then we started a more protracted bear market. until January 19, 1996, the Shanghai index fell 512.80 points low. It took a total of 16 months fell.
(b) the second phase of China's stock market: 1000 stage of the bottom of the confirmation (took 9 years)
until February 21, 1997, China's stock market once again stand on the 1000, which is a major turning-point mark, is a new phase, since then, China's stock market index has been firmly standing on the closing of 1000 points. Although the June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Composite 1,000-point mark intraday breakdown, but the stock is still the same day stubbornly above the close at 1,000 points.
from January 1996 to June 2005, the Chinese stock market has experienced the fourth round of rises and falls, the main identity of meaning is: this round of rises and falls are struggling to break through 1,500 points history point (or more than 50%)
1996 year, the wave of the bull market quietly launched in the regular annual disclosures. The Shanghai Composite Index from January 19, 1996 500 points above the June 14 launch .2001 Japan, the Shanghai index's history points toward the 2245 bull market peak of .5 cumulative increase of more than 300%! Since then, formally announced last 5 years of the bull market of the real end of this round.
in the fourth round of the Big bull market of the rising channel, it demonstrated the ) mm1510 points (May 1997) mm1047 points (May 1999) mm1756 points (June 1999) mm1361 point (January 2000) mm2245 points (June 2001).
Please note: Due to Department increase in the bull market every channel, an independent ; to winding down. It was such, that a market can be sustained CBBC, lasted nine years. This is the only experienced 20 years of China's stock market had a Change the fifth round of the most violent rises and falls off.
(5) the fifth round of rises and falls: 998 points Point mm1664 mm6124 point (or more than 50%)
2005 年 6 6, the Shanghai index down break 1,000 points, a minimum of 998.23 points. and June 14, 2001 compared to 2245 points, down more than 50% of the total, it marked the formal establishment of this round of the bear market bottom.
2005 in the second half, the Shanghai Integrated refers to the vicinity of from 1,000 to launch a new round of super bull market, May 9, 2006, the Shanghai index could once again stand on the 1500 .2006 20 November, the Shanghai index station on 2000 points.
2006 年December 14, the Shanghai index hit a historical record for the first time, to close at 2249.11 points .8 trading days after December 27, 2006, the Shanghai index onto the 2500 point mark for the first time on February 26 .2007 , the first station on the broader market 3,000-point mark .2007 May 9, stand on the broader market 4,000-point mark for the first time on August 23 .2007, the first station on the broader market 5,000-point mark.
2007 年October 15, the market for the first time to 6,000 points. The next day we set the historical record 6124 points. the broader market in 6000 stood only three days on top of the U-turn downward, which marks the formal end of the bull market.
bull market in the current round, the Shanghai Composite Index from December 14, 2006 to 2245 point soared to 16 October 2007, only took a full 10 months of effort; However, in the next bear market , the Shanghai Composite Index plunged back to the 2245 points from 6124 points, just only spent a full 10 months of effort. This is the true meaning of China's stock market rises and falls on the far not over .2008 on October 28, 1664 China's stock market plunged to point poked the absolute bottom of the current bear market! It is said that from 6100 points down over a dropped 1,600 points today, it should be almost ; But others said, and at least below 1500 points, what is more, some have predicted the current bear market also fell to 1200 points or 1000 points at the bottom again. Fortunately, all this is only a few people imagined or pessimistic.
1664 points, really paused! The great significance of this important signal is that: it identifies the Chinese stock market has finally confirmed the history of 1500 the new Great Wall!
(d) China's stock market Phase IV: the new value of the axis where? 2000 or 3000?
1500 is that China's stock market future market of the the next three to five years, China's stock market value of the axis, where is? once again the historical peak of over 6124 points have to wait long? it will not repeat Japan's stock market over 20 years of historical peak of 40,000 points, ? or it will re-take the NASDAQ can not go beyond 5500 years of historical high point of the old path of it? 20 years on China's stock market line graph K may give us some inspiration, some inspiration, or some kind of answer.
Finally, for reference: I make rash predicts that by 2010 China's stock market shocks in the 2000mm4000 hovering between points. Over the next three years, China's stock market may not exist a real bull! mainly based on the following three background factors:
first, In 2010, China's stock market will really into the fade out. What's more, spent three years strengthening the economy and regain the old mountains and rivers, once again saving energy, which is a necessary process that can not be hurried!
Second, the energy reduction targets will kill capital the hard to find! quality of economic growth target will be fully replaced by a simple indicator of economic growth!
Thirdly, as a barometer of China's economy next year, will enter a consolidation of the banking sector. On the one hand, the banks themselves to leveraging the stock market needs a second, substantial additional capital; other hand, the post-crisis era, the amount of days in the expansion of bank credit-constrained situation, the opportunity to expand the capital market, accelerated market expansion, which is fast GEM and small plates expansion of the heaven-sent opportunity! that Chinese companies can greatly ease the financing of traditional and single bank credit pressure mm.